Aviation: Record Demand Meets the "Green Premium"

The aviation industry is set for its fourth consecutive year of profitability, with global airline profits projected to reach $41 billion in 2026. However, this success is bifurcated:

 * The Growth Centers: India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are leading the next cycle, with combined order backlogs exceeding 3,000 aircraft.

 * The Fuel Dilemma: While traditional jet fuel prices remain relatively benign due to a global oil surplus, the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market is exploding. SAF is projected to grow by over 50% this year alone, yet it still accounts for less than 1% of total consumption.

 * Strategic Risk: Airlines are now forced to hedge not just against price, but against availability as EU and global mandates for SAF blending begin to bite.

Oil & Gas: The Supply Surge and the $60 Floor

The global energy landscape is entering 2026 with a projected crude oil surplus of approximately 3.8 million barrels per day.

 * Price Forecast: We anticipate ICE Brent to average $57–$60/bbl throughout the year. The surplus is largely driven by non-OPEC+ growth, particularly deepwater projects in Guyana and Brazil.

 * Geopolitical Wildcards: Despite the oversupply, tensions in Venezuela and the Middle East provide a "geopolitical floor" that prevents a total price collapse.

 * Digital Transformation: Leading upstream players are shifting capital from broad decarbonization back to operational efficiency. Digital AI divisions in oilfield services are reporting record 35% margins, proving that technology is now the primary driver of cost-saving.