Citi: Energy and Geopolitics Continue to Dominate Macro Markets

(18/05/26)

Citi’s latest market view remained focused on energy markets and geopolitical volatility, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply risks. Rising oil prices continue feeding directly into inflation expectations and bond market volatility.

The broader macro backdrop has become increasingly sensitive to commodity disruptions, with investors repricing expectations for global rate cuts as inflation pressures persist.

For dealmakers, this environment continues to favour activity across energy, shipping, infrastructure and restructuring advisory, particularly among sectors exposed to higher fuel and financing costs.

Market implications

  • Oil remains the dominant inflation driver

  • Rates volatility is likely to stay elevated

  • Commodity-linked sectors continue outperforming

M&A / deal flow implications

  • Energy and infrastructure deal flow remains strong

  • Refinancing and restructuring mandates may rise

  • Transport and industrial sectors face margin pressure

3 key takeaways

  1. Geopolitics remains central to market pricing

  2. Inflation volatility is delaying policy easing

  3. Commodity-linked advisory activity should stay elevated