Citi: Energy and Geopolitics Continue to Dominate Macro Markets
(18/05/26)
Citi’s latest market view remained focused on energy markets and geopolitical volatility, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply risks. Rising oil prices continue feeding directly into inflation expectations and bond market volatility.
The broader macro backdrop has become increasingly sensitive to commodity disruptions, with investors repricing expectations for global rate cuts as inflation pressures persist.
For dealmakers, this environment continues to favour activity across energy, shipping, infrastructure and restructuring advisory, particularly among sectors exposed to higher fuel and financing costs.
Market implications
Oil remains the dominant inflation driver
Rates volatility is likely to stay elevated
Commodity-linked sectors continue outperforming
M&A / deal flow implications
Energy and infrastructure deal flow remains strong
Refinancing and restructuring mandates may rise
Transport and industrial sectors face margin pressure
3 key takeaways
Geopolitics remains central to market pricing
Inflation volatility is delaying policy easing
Commodity-linked advisory activity should stay elevated