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(7/06/26)Goldman Sachs made one of the week's most significant macro calls, pushing its forecast for the first Federal Reserve rate cut into June 2027, having previously expected easing to begin in late 2026. The change follows stronger-than-expected employment data and continued economic resilience.The bank believes the economy remains strong enough for policymakers to tolerate elevated rates for longer. Goldman also argued that current market enthusiasm is elevated but far from bubble territory. Its internal analysis showed overall market exuberance at 66%, well below the peaks of 99% during 2000 and 92% during 2021.For bankers, a higher-for-longer environment supports strategic M&amp;A but continues to challenge leveraged buyouts and highly debt-dependent transactions.Market implications<ul><li>Fed cuts may be delayed until 2027</li><li>Economic growth remains stronger than expected</li><li>Equity markets are elevated but not yet euphoric</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Strategic M&amp;A remains attractive</li><li>LBO financing conditions remain challenging</li><li>Corporate balance sheets retain an advantage over sponsors</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Goldman now expects no Fed cuts until 2027</li><li>Economic data remains surprisingly resilient</li><li>Market exuberance is elevated but not extreme</li></ol>

Goldman Sachs: Strong Economy Pushes Rate Cuts Further Away

(8/06/26)JPMorgan’s latest weekly view suggests that while investors are increasingly focused on inflation data and interest-rate expectations, the dominant market theme remains AI-driven growth. Equity markets continue to trade near record highs following a 19% rally since late March, supported by resilient earnings and continued investment into AI infrastructure.However, economic data has become more mixed. Recent figures showed consumer confidence at 93.1 and new home sales at 622,000, indicating pockets of softness beneath the strong market backdrop. Investors are now focused on upcoming US CPI data as they assess whether inflation is cooling fast enough to justify future Fed easing.For investment bankers, AI remains the strongest source of deal activity, particularly across semiconductors, digital infrastructure, power assets and data centres.Market implications<ul><li>AI continues to dominate equity performance</li><li>Markets remain highly sensitive to inflation data</li><li>Broader economic indicators are showing signs of moderation</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>AI infrastructure remains the most active deal theme</li><li>Data-centre and semiconductor activity remains elevated</li><li>Strategic buyers continue pursuing growth assets</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>AI remains the market’s primary driver</li><li>CPI is the key catalyst this week</li><li>Infrastructure-related deal flow remains strong</li></ol>

JPMorgan: Markets Enter CPI Week With AI Still in Control

(7/06/26)Morgan Stanley continues to maintain one of the most constructive outlooks on global equities. Its mid-year outlook projects approximately 12% upside for the S&amp;P 500 over the next 12 months, supported by AI-driven investment, resilient earnings and moderating inflation.The bank believes corporate earnings remain strong enough to offset geopolitical uncertainty and higher energy prices. At the same time, it warns that increased debt issuance linked to AI spending could create pressure within credit markets as companies seek financing for large-scale infrastructure projects.For dealmakers, the AI investment cycle continues to drive activity across semiconductors, hyperscalers, utilities, power generation and digital infrastructure.Market implications<ul><li>US equities remain Morgan Stanley’s preferred asset class</li><li>AI capex continues supporting earnings growth</li><li>Credit markets may face increasing supply pressure</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>AI-related transactions remain highly active</li><li>Utilities and power infrastructure remain key themes</li><li>Equity-funded acquisitions remain attractive</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Morgan Stanley remains bullish on equities</li><li>AI spending is supporting growth expectations</li><li>Credit markets are the main emerging risk</li></ol>

Morgan Stanley: Bullish Equity View Remains Intact

(7/06/26)Bank of America’s broader market view remains constructive on risk assets, with particular focus on improving conditions within the financial sector. The market continues to benefit from strong earnings and healthy liquidity despite concerns surrounding inflation and geopolitical tensions.The key theme remains expanding balance-sheet capacity across large banks, supporting lending activity, underwriting volumes and broader capital markets participation. This comes as equity markets remain near record levels and corporate confidence continues improving.For investment bankers, stronger balance sheets create a more favourable backdrop for acquisition financing, syndicated lending and underwriting activity.Market implications<ul><li>Financial conditions remain supportive</li><li>Bank lending capacity continues improving</li><li>Risk appetite remains healthy despite volatility</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Better financing conditions support transactions</li><li>Underwriting activity remains strong</li><li>Sponsors may gain greater access to debt markets</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Banking sector liquidity remains supportive</li><li>Capital markets activity continues improving</li><li>Financing availability is gradually expanding</li></ol>

Bank of America: Banking Sector Liquidity Supports Deal Activity

(7/06/26)Citi delivered one of the week's most bullish calls, raising its year-end S&amp;P 500 target to 8,100 from 7,700, implying roughly 10% upside from current levels. The bank also lifted its 2026 EPS forecast to $350, up from $320, and introduced a preliminary 2027 EPS estimate of $400.The upgrade is based on what Citi describes as an ongoing AI-related capital expenditure “supercycle”, which continues to drive earnings growth across multiple sectors. The bank expects earnings beats to persist throughout 2026, although it cautioned that growth could slow once the current investment boom eventually matures.At the same time, Citi warned that positioning has become increasingly stretched, particularly within large-cap technology stocks and the Nasdaq, increasing the risk of short-term volatility.Market implications<ul><li>Citi expects the S&amp;P 500 to reach 8,100</li><li>AI remains the dominant earnings driver</li><li>Positioning risks are beginning to build</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Technology M&amp;A remains highly active</li><li>AI infrastructure financing continues accelerating</li><li>Elevated valuations support stock-based acquisitions</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Citi raised its S&amp;P 500 target to 8,100</li><li>AI capex remains the central market theme</li><li>Positioning is becoming increasingly crowded and stretched</li></ol>

Citi: AI Supercycle Drives Major Upgrade to Equity Outlook