JPMorgan: AI Earnings Boom Drives Target Upgrade

29 June 2026

JPMorgan turned even more bullish this week, raising its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,800 from 7,600, joining a wave of upward revisions across Wall Street. The bank cited stronger-than-expected earnings growth, AI-driven capital expenditure and improving geopolitical conditions following progress in US-Iran negotiations.

The firm also lifted its earnings forecasts to $350 EPS for 2026 and $390 EPS for 2027. With the S&P 500 up 7.6% year-to-date, JPMorgan believes the AI investment cycle remains in its early stages, although it warned that crowded positioning in AI-related names could increase volatility.

Market implications

  • AI continues driving earnings upgrades

  • S&P 500 target increased to 7,800

  • Crowded positioning increases downside risk

M&A / deal flow implications

  • Equity valuations support stock-financed acquisitions

  • AI infrastructure remains the strongest deal theme

  • ECM markets continue to improve

3 key takeaways

  1. JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 target.

  2. AI capex continues driving earnings growth.

  3. Crowded AI positioning is the biggest near-term risk.