28 September 2026 | Latest available: Weekly Market Monitor, September 18

Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s latest Weekly Market Monitor identifies a sharp rise in global bond yields as the central market theme. The bank attributes the move to AI-related capital expenditure, rising fiscal spending and renewed energy-supply concerns, all of which are increasing demand for capital and inflation uncertainty.

Goldman highlights that 30-year sovereign yields are at or near cycle highs across major markets. Its view is that shorter-term yields could decline as temporary inflation pressures fade, but longer-term yields may remain elevated because of fiscal concerns and a higher structural term premium.

The latest market data reinforces the point. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached around 5.03% during September, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield has moved above 5.5%.

For investment bankers, the combination of AI capex and higher funding costs is particularly important: companies are simultaneously demanding more capital while the cost of that capital is rising.

Market implications

• Long-duration yields remain under pressure

• AI capex is increasing demand for financing

• Fiscal deficits are contributing to higher term premia

• Inflation uncertainty remains elevated

M&A / deal flow implications

• Higher financing costs could reduce highly leveraged deal activity

• Capital-intensive AI infrastructure remains a major financing opportunity

• Infrastructure and data-centre financing should remain active

3 key takeaways

1. Long-term yields are being structurally repriced higher.

2. AI investment is itself contributing to capital-market pressure.

3. Financing costs are becoming increasingly important to deal economics.