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(18/05/26)Goldman Sachs’ latest market monitor highlighted a major shift in investor positioning, with AI-related equities increasingly being treated as defensive growth assets amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The bank noted that the Nasdaq has rallied 26% from March lows, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged more than 60%.The bank also warned that market valuations are becoming increasingly stretched. Goldman’s proprietary Risk Appetite Indicator reached 1.1, a level seen only 2% of the time since 1950, while momentum strategies have sharply outperformed broader markets.On commodities, Goldman reiterated that Middle East tensions remain the market’s largest downside risk. The bank expects central-bank gold purchases to rise toward 60 tonnes per month through 2026, while maintaining a long-term gold target of $5,400/oz.For bankers, AI infrastructure remains the dominant capital allocation story, supporting deal activity across semiconductors, cooling systems, data centres and energy infrastructure.Market implications<ul><li>AI continues attracting defensive capital flows</li><li>Valuation concentration risk is increasing</li><li>Gold and commodities remain supported by geopolitical uncertainty</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Continued momentum in AI infrastructure transactions</li><li>Semiconductor and data-centre consolidation likely to accelerate</li><li>Energy infrastructure financing remains active</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>AI is increasingly viewed as a defensive sector</li><li>Market positioning is becoming more crowded</li><li>Geopolitical risks continue supporting commodities</li></ol>

Goldman Sachs: AI Becomes a Defensive Trade as Markets Reprice Risk

(18/05/26)JPMorgan’s latest market commentary comes as rising Treasury yields begin to challenge the resilience of the equity rally. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.13%, its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield reached 4.60%, driven by persistent inflation concerns and elevated oil prices.Despite the rates backdrop, risk appetite has remained relatively firm. The S&amp;P 500 briefly touched fresh highs, supported by continued strength in AI-linked equities and earnings resilience. Markets, however, have become increasingly sensitive to inflation surprises, with US CPI rising 0.6% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year.For investment bankers, the environment remains mixed. Strong equity valuations continue supporting ECM pipelines and sponsor activity, but higher long-end yields could pressure leveraged financing conditions and slow large-cap buyout activity.Market implications<ul><li>Higher yields are beginning to weigh on growth equities</li><li>Inflation expectations remain elevated</li><li>Energy and defensive sectors continue outperforming</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>ECM activity remains open but more selective</li><li>Leveraged finance markets face renewed pressure</li><li>Strategic M&amp;A likely to outperform sponsor-led megadeals</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Bond yields are now the market’s primary risk variable</li><li>AI continues supporting equity performance</li><li>Financing conditions are becoming less supportive for LBOs</li></ol>

JPMorgan: Bond Yields Threaten to Derail the AI-Led Rally

(18/05/26)Morgan Stanley raised its year-end S&amp;P 500 target to 8,000, implying roughly 8% upside from current levels near 7,400, as the bank grows increasingly confident in earnings-driven equity gains.The bank now forecasts 2026 EPS of $339, representing 23% year-on-year growth, driven by AI adoption, operating leverage and stronger pricing power across large-cap corporates. So far, 83.2% of reporting S&amp;P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations.Morgan Stanley acknowledged that higher bond yields could compress valuation multiples, but argued that earnings momentum remains strong enough to offset macro headwinds.For investment bankers, the outlook remains highly supportive for strategic technology M&amp;A, AI-linked infrastructure deals and public-market issuance.Market implications<ul><li>Earnings growth remains the primary equity driver</li><li>AI productivity gains continue supporting margins</li><li>Higher yields may pressure valuations but not fundamentals</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Technology and AI-related deal activity should remain robust</li><li>Improved equity valuations support stock-financed acquisitions</li><li>Infrastructure and power deals remain active</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Morgan Stanley remains bullish on US equities</li><li>AI-driven earnings growth continues accelerating</li><li>Stronger earnings are offsetting valuation pressure</li></ol>

Morgan Stanley: Earnings Strength Drives Higher S&P 500 Targets

(18/05/26)Bank of America’s latest market commentary highlighted improving market breadth as gains extend beyond mega-cap technology stocks. The broader market has continued to stabilise despite rising yields and inflation concerns, with the S&amp;P 500 recording its seventh consecutive weekly gain before Friday’s pullback.Economic data remained mixed. Markets are closely watching housing and manufacturing data, while expectations for rate cuts continue to moderate as inflation remains elevated.For bankers, improving breadth is important because it supports healthier equity issuance conditions and broadens the range of sectors able to access public markets.Market implications<ul><li>Broader participation is improving market resilience</li><li>Rate-cut expectations continue shifting later</li><li>Equity sentiment remains constructive despite volatility</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Improved conditions for ECM and follow-ons</li><li>Stronger sector participation supports mid-market M&amp;A</li><li>Sponsors remain selective amid higher financing costs</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Market breadth continues improving</li><li>Inflation remains the key macro concern</li><li>ECM conditions remain constructive overall</li></ol>

Bank of America: Broader Equity Participation Supports Market Stability

(18/05/26)Citi’s latest market view remained focused on energy markets and geopolitical volatility, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply risks. Rising oil prices continue feeding directly into inflation expectations and bond market volatility.The broader macro backdrop has become increasingly sensitive to commodity disruptions, with investors repricing expectations for global rate cuts as inflation pressures persist.For dealmakers, this environment continues to favour activity across energy, shipping, infrastructure and restructuring advisory, particularly among sectors exposed to higher fuel and financing costs.Market implications<ul><li>Oil remains the dominant inflation driver</li><li>Rates volatility is likely to stay elevated</li><li>Commodity-linked sectors continue outperforming</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Energy and infrastructure deal flow remains strong</li><li>Refinancing and restructuring mandates may rise</li><li>Transport and industrial sectors face margin pressure</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Geopolitics remains central to market pricing</li><li>Inflation volatility is delaying policy easing</li><li>Commodity-linked advisory activity should stay elevated</li></ol>