Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Turn More Hawkish as Inflation Persists

28 September 2026 | Latest available: Thoughts on the Market, September 22

Morgan Stanley has materially revised its interest-rate outlook as resilient growth and renewed energy-price pressures push inflation expectations higher. Its economists now expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates twice more, in December and March, taking the terminal rate to 4.25%-4.50%.

The shift extends beyond the US. Morgan Stanley expects another ECB hike in December, while it forecasts the Bank of Japan rate at 1.50% in December and approximately 1.75% in March. The bank argues that the underlying economies have proved more resilient to tighter financial conditions than previously expected.

Markets are already pricing the possibility of another Fed hike. As of Monday, 28 September, traders were assigning roughly a 65%-66% probability to an October hike, while the 30-year Treasury yield had risen to approximately 5.52%.

For bankers, higher-for-longer rates raise the cost of acquisition financing and could put greater emphasis on cash-rich strategic buyers.

Market implications

  • Morgan Stanley expects Fed funds to reach 4.25%-4.50%

  • ECB expected to hike again in December

  • BoJ potentially reaches 1.75% by March

  • Higher rates support the dollar

  • Energy prices remain a major inflation risk

M&A / deal flow implications

  • Higher debt costs could constrain sponsor-led transactions

  • Strategic buyers with strong balance sheets gain relative financing flexibility

  • Refinancing and liability-management activity could increase

3 key takeaways

  1. Morgan Stanley has shifted materially more hawkish on rates.

  2. Resilient growth is allowing central banks to tolerate tighter policy.

  3. Higher financing costs could reshape M&A deal structures.