Morgan Stanley: Lower Oil Prices Improve the Macro Outlook

29 June 2026

Morgan Stanley's latest research highlighted easing inflation risks following the sharp decline in oil prices. Brent crude ended the week around $80.57 per barrel, down nearly 8%, reducing pressure on inflation expectations and improving the outlook for financial markets.

The bank maintained its constructive view on equities, arguing that AI-led earnings growth continues to outweigh macro headwinds. It also reiterated that gold's long-term outlook depends increasingly on renewed investor demand rather than central-bank purchases.

Market implications

  • Lower oil prices ease inflation concerns

  • AI remains the primary earnings driver

  • Commodity markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments

M&A / deal flow implications

  • Improved financing conditions support transactions

  • Infrastructure and AI deals remain active

  • Energy deal momentum may moderate if oil prices remain lower

3 key takeaways

  1. Falling oil prices improve the macro backdrop.

  2. AI continues supporting earnings.

  3. Financing conditions are gradually improving.