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28 September 2026 | Latest available: Weekly Market Monitor, September 18Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s latest Weekly Market Monitor identifies a sharp rise in global bond yields as the central market theme. The bank attributes the move to AI-related capital expenditure, rising fiscal spending and renewed energy-supply concerns, all of which are increasing demand for capital and inflation uncertainty.Goldman highlights that 30-year sovereign yields are at or near cycle highs across major markets. Its view is that shorter-term yields could decline as temporary inflation pressures fade, but longer-term yields may remain elevated because of fiscal concerns and a higher structural term premium.The latest market data reinforces the point. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached around 5.03% during September, its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield has moved above 5.5%.For investment bankers, the combination of AI capex and higher funding costs is particularly important: companies are simultaneously demanding more capital while the cost of that capital is rising.Market implications<ul><li>Long-duration yields remain under pressure</li><li>AI capex is increasing demand for financing</li><li>Fiscal deficits are contributing to higher term premia</li><li>Inflation uncertainty remains elevated</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Higher financing costs could reduce highly leveraged deal activity</li><li>Capital-intensive AI infrastructure remains a major financing opportunity</li><li>Infrastructure and data-centre financing should remain active</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Long-term yields are being structurally repriced higher.</li><li>AI investment is itself contributing to capital-market pressure.</li><li>Financing costs are becoming increasingly important to deal economics.</li></ol>

Goldman Sachs: AI Capex and Fiscal Spending Push Bond Yields Higher

28 September 2026 | Latest available: Weekly Market Recap, 21 SeptemberJPMorgan’s latest weekly recap focuses on the ability of companies to absorb the higher financing costs created by the Fed’s 25bp rate hike. August retail sales rose 1.2%, while import prices increased 0.7% month-on-month, pointing to a resilient economy but persistent inflation pressure.The bank’s key distinction is between the Mag 7 and the rest of the market. Mega-cap technology companies have significantly stronger interest coverage and balance sheets, giving them greater capacity to keep funding AI investment even as borrowing costs rise. JPMorgan argues that the AI investment cycle is therefore likely to remain intact, while smaller companies and more rate-sensitive sectors face greater pressure.The wider market is already reflecting the shift. On 25 September, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.51% and the Nasdaq 0.48%, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated.For dealmakers, the divergence matters: well-capitalised technology companies retain financing flexibility, while leveraged and smaller companies may face higher funding costs.Market implications<ul><li>Fed has raised rates by 25bp</li><li>August retail sales: +1.2%</li><li>Import prices: +0.7% m/m</li><li>Higher rates favour companies with strong balance sheets</li><li>AI investment remains relatively resilient</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Large-cap technology buyers retain significant financing capacity</li><li>Higher rates could constrain leveraged transactions</li><li>Smaller and highly indebted companies may become more attractive restructuring or consolidation targets</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Higher rates are creating a two-speed corporate market.</li><li>The Mag 7 remains better positioned to finance AI investment.</li><li>Rate-sensitive companies face increasing financing pressure.</li></ol>

JPMorgan: Higher Rates Test the AI Investment Boom

28 September 2026 | Latest available: Thoughts on the Market, September 22Morgan Stanley has materially revised its interest-rate outlook as resilient growth and renewed energy-price pressures push inflation expectations higher. Its economists now expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates twice more, in December and March, taking the terminal rate to 4.25%-4.50%.The shift extends beyond the US. Morgan Stanley expects another ECB hike in December, while it forecasts the Bank of Japan rate at 1.50% in December and approximately 1.75% in March. The bank argues that the underlying economies have proved more resilient to tighter financial conditions than previously expected.Markets are already pricing the possibility of another Fed hike. As of Monday, 28 September, traders were assigning roughly a 65%-66% probability to an October hike, while the 30-year Treasury yield had risen to approximately 5.52%.For bankers, higher-for-longer rates raise the cost of acquisition financing and could put greater emphasis on cash-rich strategic buyers.Market implications<ul><li>Morgan Stanley expects Fed funds to reach 4.25%-4.50%</li><li>ECB expected to hike again in December</li><li>BoJ potentially reaches 1.75% by March</li><li>Higher rates support the dollar</li><li>Energy prices remain a major inflation risk</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Higher debt costs could constrain sponsor-led transactions</li><li>Strategic buyers with strong balance sheets gain relative financing flexibility</li><li>Refinancing and liability-management activity could increase</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Morgan Stanley has shifted materially more hawkish on rates.</li><li>Resilient growth is allowing central banks to tolerate tighter policy.</li><li>Higher financing costs could reshape M&amp;A deal structures.</li></ol>

Morgan Stanley: Central Banks Turn More Hawkish as Inflation Persists

28 September 2026 | Latest available: Capital Market Outlook, September 21Bank of America’s latest Capital Market Outlook focuses on the interaction between higher Treasury yields, AI investment and geopolitical risk. Its macro strategy highlights pressure across the yen, the 10-year Treasury market and the Iran situation, while its market view examines the growing resource demands of AI.The rate backdrop has deteriorated sharply. By Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield was around 5.52%, up roughly 27bp during September, while the 2-year yield had risen approximately 55bp as markets increasingly priced another Fed hike. Bank of America rates strategist Mark Cabana said there was further room for bonds to sell off before financial conditions become sufficiently restrictive.At the same time, AI continues to support equity valuations and capital expenditure. The challenge for markets is that the same AI investment boom requiring enormous amounts of capital is occurring against a backdrop of increasingly expensive financing.Market implications<ul><li>30-year Treasury: approximately 5.52%</li><li>2-year Treasury yields up around 55bp this month</li><li>AI remains a major source of investment and growth</li><li>Higher yields increase pressure on equity valuations</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Higher debt costs could weigh on LBO activity</li><li>Strategic M&amp;A remains relatively better positioned</li><li>AI infrastructure creates continued demand for financing</li><li>Liability-management and refinancing opportunities may increase</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Bond-market repricing is becoming a major constraint.</li><li>AI investment remains powerful but increasingly capital-intensive.</li><li>The financing gap between strong and weak balance sheets is widening.</li></ol>

Bank of America: Higher Yields and AI Create a Two-Speed Market

28 September 2026 | Latest available: Weekly Market Update, September 22Citi’s latest weekly update argues that global economies are proving resilient enough to absorb higher interest rates. The Fed, Bank of Japan and ECB have all moved toward tighter policy, while Citi maintains a constructive stance on risk assets despite the higher-rate environment.One of the report’s most important figures is the scale of hyperscaler borrowing. The largest cloud and technology companies have issued more than $250bn of debt this year, already more than twice their total issuance in all of 2025. Yet Citi argues that leverage remains manageable because profitability is exceptionally strong: among the ten largest S&amp;P 500 companies, gross margins have risen from 47% in 1995 to 58% today, while EBITDA margins have increased from 21% to nearly 40%.Citi also notes that 9 of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors are showing above-trend earnings growth, challenging the idea that current market strength is purely an AI story.For dealmakers, the message is significant: debt issuance is rising sharply, but strong earnings are providing the capacity to service it.Market implications<ul><li>Hyperscaler debt issuance: &gt;$250bn YTD</li><li>Gross margins at top 10 S&amp;P companies: 58%, versus 47% in 1995</li><li>EBITDA margins: nearly 40%, versus 21% in 1995</li><li>9/11 sectors show above-trend earnings growth</li><li>Citi sees higher rates as manageable for corporates</li></ul>M&amp;A / deal flow implications<ul><li>Large technology companies retain substantial debt capacity</li><li>AI infrastructure financing remains a major capital-market opportunity</li><li>Higher rates may affect smaller companies more severely</li><li>Strong corporate earnings support strategic M&amp;A</li></ul>3 key takeaways<ol><li>Higher rates have not yet broken corporate fundamentals.</li><li>AI investment is driving enormous debt issuance without a comparable deterioration in leverage.</li><li>Earnings strength is broader than the AI-heavy headline suggests.</li></ol>

Citi: Higher Rates Are Here to Stay - But Earnings Are Keeping Pace

28 September 2026The five banks are converging around a clear market tension: economic growth and AI investment remain strong, but the cost of capital is rising sharply.The 10-year Treasury is around 5%, the 30-year is around 5.52%, Brent is above $106 a barrel, and markets are pricing roughly a 65%-66% probability of another Fed hike in October.Yet equities remain relatively resilient. The S&amp;P 500 is only a little over 1% below its mid-August peak, while AI continues to support earnings expectations.For investment banking, the central issue is therefore not whether capital is available, but who can afford it. Large technology companies and other cash-generative corporates retain substantial financing capacity, while smaller, highly leveraged businesses face a more difficult environment.The StreetBrief read-through:<ul><li>AI: still driving capex, earnings and financing demand.</li><li>Rates: increasingly the biggest constraint on deal economics.</li><li>M&amp;A: strategic, cash-rich buyers are better positioned than highly leveraged sponsors.</li><li>LevFin: higher yields increase scrutiny of leverage and interest coverage.</li><li>ECM: strong equity markets continue to provide an alternative source of capital.</li></ul>Important timing note: as of the morning of Monday 28 September, JPMorgan and BofA's latest weekly publications were dated 21 September, Citi's 22 September, Morgan Stanley's latest relevant macro note was 22 September, and Goldman Sachs' latest available Weekly Market Monitor was dated 18 September. I haven't presented a not-yet-published 28 September report as if it exists.